Hump Day News
3-Axle Coffee: Trucking Brief — September 2025
What’s brewing in trucking
• Diesel steady in a tight band. The EIA’s benchmark on-highway diesel has been moving in a narrow range this summer; after several weekly declines it ticked up again this week. Translation: budgeting stays tricky, but no major spike yet.
• Freight demand: mixed but improving y/y. DAT shows van load-to-truck ratios up sharply year-over-year, even if week-to-week is choppy. C.H. Robinson trimmed its 2025 spot-rate outlook to +2% y/y, signaling a gradual climb rather than a surge.
Safety & regs you should actually care about
• FMCSA flexibility pilots are live. The agency launched pilots to test more flexible rest: optional 6/4 or 5/5 sleeper splits, and a 30–180 minute pause of the 14-hour clock. If adopted, this could give drivers more control over fatigue management.
• Speed limiter rulemaking withdrawn. FMCSA and NHTSA formally withdrew the prior speed-limiter proposals (including the 2022 notice). For now, there’s no federal speed-limiter mandate moving forward.
Emissions & equipment watch
• EPA’s Heavy-Duty GHG “Phase 3.” Finalized in 2024, Phase 3 sets tougher CO₂ standards for model years 2027–2032. It’s technology-neutral, but the compliance pathway pushes OEMs toward efficiency and low/zero-emission options. Expect spec-sheet changes and evolving TCO math as fleets shop new iron.
• California rules face new legal fire. The U.S. DOJ filed suits to block California’s stricter truck standards; truck makers also sued seeking relief from the state’s Clean Truck Partnership obligations. Portions of California’s ACF rule have already been slated for rollback via a multi-state deal, but litigation is ongoing—watch this space if you operate or buy equipment in CARB states.
Market & money: quick takes
• Reefer rates eased in August after July’s bump; year-over-year linehaul comps remain a touch lower. If you’re bidding seasonal produce or late-summer lanes, build in a buffer and watch fuel surcharge tables.
• Plan fuel like a pro. With prices range-bound, smaller swings can still eat margins. Lock in your target breakeven per mile and revisit it weekly using the EIA print.
What it means for drivers & small fleets
• Scheduling may get saner. If the FMCSA pilots prove out, more flexible sleeper and pause options could reduce “racing the clock” stress without cutting miles.
• Specs are a moving target. Between EPA Phase 3 and the California court fights, keep close to your dealer on 2027+ models; early clarity on aftertreatment, residuals, and incentives will matter.
• Price discipline wins. Freight isn’t roaring back, but it’s improving y/y. Keep a tight handle on empty miles and bid lanes with fuel variability in mind.
From the 3-Axle Coffee pit
• We’re sampling a new dark roast designed for long-haul nights—smooth body, low bitterness, and it holds up great in a thermos.
One last sip
Whether you’re chasing better rates, watching fuel, or planning your next equipment buy, we’ll keep the quick, credible updates coming—right alongside the coffee that keeps you rolling.
— The 3-Axle Coffee Crew
