Hump Day News

Market and Economic Trends

The trucking industry is navigating a challenging landscape this week, with ongoing effects from tariffs, softening demand, and a slow recovery from the freight recession. Preliminary data shows North American Class 8 truck orders for August dropped 14% year-over-year to 13,000 units, signaling continued headwinds for OEM production and suppliers. For the full 2025 order cycle (September 2024–August 2025), cumulative orders are down 15% from the prior year. Truckload demand is declining, though tender rejections and carrier rates indicate a gradual tightening of capacity. U.S. Bank data reveals the national truck freight market grew modestly in Q2 2025 despite trade uncertainties, but spot rates dipped post-Labor Day, with van and reefer segments gaining slightly while flatbed remains weak. Trucking jobs held steady at 1,523,000 in August, above last year’s levels but trending down over five months. Overall, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) projects a modest 1.6% volume growth for 2025 after two years of declines, with industry revenues expected to reach $1.46 trillion by 2035. However, tariffs are quashing rebound hopes, leading to a spike in bankruptcies among carriers that boomed during the pandemic e-commerce surge. The Canadian Trucking Alliance warns of the toughest economic climate in three decades, with small companies on both sides of the border facing razor-thin margins.

Regulatory and Policy Developments

The Trump administration is actively shaping trucking policy. It rescinded a Biden-era rule this week to protect independent contractors, drawing praise from industry groups for shielding owner-operators from reclassification risks. FMCSA has delayed several rulemakings into 2026, including broker transparency, side underride guards, emergency braking, and ELD updates, providing temporary relief but uncertainty for fleets. Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered “zero tolerance” enforcement of FMCSA’s English language rules for commercial drivers, targeting unqualified operators. ATRI launched its 2025 Top Industry Issues Survey, open through October 10, to rank concerns like economy, regulations, and driver shortages—results due October 26 at ATA’s Management Conference in San Diego. On immigration, Nebraska signed a labor pact with Kenya to supply truck drivers amid the “shortage,” sparking backlash over safety risks given Kenya’s high road fatality rate (28.2 per 100k, quadruple Europe’s). In Canada, Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation suspended 1,200 drivers for dishonesty in Class A testing, addressing fake licenses and unqualified hires. Industry voices decry unqualified foreign drivers and fake DOT numbers eroding standards, with calls for relicensing the entire sector.

Safety and Driver Concerns

Safety remains a flashpoint. The USDOT is investigating Charlotte’s transit security after a high-profile murder, but critics note the cancellation of FMCSA’s SASH study on sexual assault and harassment in trucking, leaving a data gap amid pushes for second-chance hiring of formerly incarcerated drivers. Reports of unqualified CDL holders—often immigrants—causing crashes are surging, with anecdotal evidence of empty distribution centers, excess truck parking, and erratic operations signaling broader distress. Autonomous tech is advancing to address shortages (projected to double to 160,000 by 2030), with PlusAI and International Motors piloting self-driving trucks on I-35 from Laredo to Dallas; proponents say it could save $36 billion annually in accident costs. ATA crowned David Comings of FedEx Freight the 2025 Bendix Grand Champion at the National Truck Driving Championships in Minneapolis.

Company and Sector News

• Leadership Changes: Marten Transport CEO Tim Kohl retires end of September; Executive Chairman Randy Marten takes over.
• Acquisitions and Ventures: Mullen Group acquires Searcy Trucking, adding transloading and warehousing capabilities. Steves & Sons partners for initial autonomous routes in Texas.
• Advocacy: ATA’s Moving & Storage Council (MSC) held its 2025 Call on Washington, with members lobbying Capitol Hill on key issues.
• Other: Moyer & Sons named ATA’s 2025 Independent Mover of the Year. Everstream Analytics partnered with FourKites for weather analytics reaching over a million logistics pros. ISM reports contracting backlogs and no equipment buying activity, worse than the 2008-09 recession.

The week underscores a industry in flux: cautious optimism for 2025 growth amid tariffs and automation, but urgent calls to enforce standards and protect domestic drivers.*Pictures provided by Drivers on the road: Dusty Adams