Hump Day News

🔍 Key Headlines & Trends

Tariffs, Trade, & Regulation

• President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, effective October 1, 2025, as part of broader import levies.  

• The move is intended to shield domestic manufacturers (e.g. Peterbilt, Kenworth) from foreign competition.  

• Analysts expect this to put upward pressure on parts, supply chains, and pricing.  

• One result: Paccar’s stock saw a bump (rising ~7%) on the tariff news.  

• The Department of Transportation has declared a “national emergency” concerning how states issue commercial driver licenses (CDLs) to noncitizens.  

• New rules will require in-person renewals, link license expirations to immigration documentation, and tighten verification.  

• States are under pressure to comply, or else face penalties.  

• The U.S. FMCSA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration) is ending acceptance of paper payments (checks, money orders) for agency transactions starting September 30, 2025.  

• This affects registering, reinstatements, name changes, penalty payments, etc.  

• The Laredo Motor Carriers Association (LMCA) is pushing back on stricter enforcement of English proficiency rules for border drayage drivers (i.e. those operating in U.S.–Mexico zones).  

• Under proposed enforcement, drivers may need to respond to 80% of interview questions in English—LMCA warns this could remove many drivers from service.  

• LMCA is offering tailored ESL (English as a Second Language) training for inspection / paperwork use.  

• California has repealed its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) purchasing mandate for private truck fleets, rolling back a key part of its aggressive climate enforcement in trucking.  

• This move follows federal pushback on California’s ability to enforce stricter-than-federal rules.  

• The heavy-duty EV truck segment is still nascent; voluntary incentives may now carry more weight than mandates.  

Market Conditions & Freight Trends

• Truckload demand is soft / declining seasonally, even as rates and tender rejections suggest capacity pressures.  

• FreightWaves’ “State of the Industry” white paper notes unseasonal decline in demand, despite signs of tightening capacity.  

• C.H. Robinson’s September update cites unevenness: trade policy, port congestion, and fuel costs among headwinds.  

• Trinity Logistics notes freight volumes are stalled, rates flat, with hope that capacity exits may shake up the market.  

• Longer-term outlooks are cautious:

• Carrier executives expect a “bumpy ride” for 12–18 months, given high capacity and weak demand.  

• FTR revised its forecast downward: it now expects 247,000 Class 8 trucks to ship in North America in 2025 (down from earlier estimates).  

• ACT Research describes the industry as in an “extended correction” phase: capacity is easing gradually, but margins remain under pressure.  

• There’s industry pushback on the idea that rail can replace trucking: The American Trucking Associations argues that while rail has a role, it cannot replicate the flexibility of trucks in many supply chains.  

Technology & Autonomy

• Aurora Innovation partnered with McLeod Software to integrate autonomous trucking into McLeod’s Transportation Management System (TMS), making it easier for customers to manage autonomous freight.  

• Aurora is already doing commercial driverless operations in Texas using its “Aurora Driver” system.  

• Meanwhile, self-driving Class 8 trucks are (slowly) becoming reality on U.S. public highways.  

• Aurora’s trucks have completed ~1,200 miles autonomously between Dallas–Houston.  

• Expansion to El Paso and Phoenix is in the plans.  

• Torc Robotics, owned by Daimler Truck, continues development of its autonomous truck technology, focusing on in-house integration rather than aftermarket retrofits.  

• In the EV charging infrastructure domain, Greenlane is building a corridor network for commercial EV charging (medium to heavy duty) along high-traffic trucking routes (e.g. LA ↔ Las Vegas, I-10).  

Labor, Protests, & Safety

• In Montreal, truckers staged a “slow-roll” protest to spotlight poor driver training and inadequate maintenance standards in the industry.  

• At the regulatory front, proposals are circulating to ban predatory lease-purchase programs in trucking, a long-criticized practice that some drivers say traps them in cycles of debt and poor terms.  

• Insurance costs remain a headache: The trucking industry continues to grapple with rapidly rising premiums and claims, which strain margins, especially in a weak freight market.